Notes on innovation during the 2020s
As we start another ten years, it's a great loves hidden policy opportunity to consider assumptions for the following 10 years. Tyler figures the Great Stagnation could end. Caleb sees breaks. Noah communicates techno-idealism. Here, my point isn't to foresee an end or non-end to stagnation. Rather, it is to thoroughly consider the points of interest of how innovation could advance throughout the following 10 years. Then, at that point, we can survey independently whether we ought to think of it as the Roaring 20s or the Boring 20s. What might be a finish to the Great Stagnation? Any exact end will be erratic, yet for conversation, suppose supported development in usage changed complete variable efficiency of 2% each year. By correlation, mean use changed TFP development from 1947 through 1972 was 2.1 percent. Starting around 2005, it has been 0.17 percent. (Note: it is critical to utilize the use changed series, as this adjusts for the business cycle.) Absolute figure effi...